Estimates of Arbor Hills Landfill Life Vary - Our Best Estimate is 6 -7 Years

<CLICK HERE> for pdf version.

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) released its annual Report of Solid Waste Landfilled in Michigan covering the 2020 fiscal year. The current report and reports from past years are available on the EGLE website <CLICK HERE>.  Here are some highlights from the report.·        

  • Over 23% of the solid waste landfilled in Michigan in 2020 was generated outside of Michigan. Over 17% was imported from Canada (page 4).

    • Low tipping fees and an abundance of landfill capacity contribute to Michigan serving as a landfill for the surrounding area.

    • Arbor Hills Landfill did not accept any waste from Canada during the 2020 fiscal year. (page 31)

  • Less than 20% of the waste landfilled at Arbor Hills is generated in Washtenaw County, the host county.  (page 31)

  • Even with the large amount of solid waste imported into Michigan, the state currently has approximately 24 years of landfill capacity (page 28).

    • This overcapacity of landfill space impedes efforts to improve recycling programs.  

  •  The Arbor Hills Landfill reported 25% less waste accepted in 2020 and 45% less capacity utilized (space filled) when compared to 2019. The COVID pandemic/economic slowdown may have been responsible for some of the volume decrease but we cannot explain the discrepancy between the volume accepted and capacity utilized.

    • The curiously low ‘capacity utilization” reported by Arbor Hills resulted in the projected life of the landfill increasing (reported as 13 – 15 years). This increased life would only be possible if Arbor Hills maintained this low “capacity utilization” permanently, which The Conservancy Initiative believes is highly unlikely.

    • Our best estimate of the landfill life is 6 – 7 years based on data submitted by the landfill to EGLE over the past several years.  We will explain our analysis below. All the data is taken from the EGLE Solid Waste Landfilled in Michigan.

  • The process to obtain a permit for a landfill on a new site (e.g. the compost site) could take up to five years to complete. Based on our estimates, Green for Life will be making critical decisions on whether to pursue a new landfill permit very soon. All residents should be prepared to express their opinions as this decision will be very important for the future of our neighborhoods.

 Capacity Used

The landfill “capacity used” (landfill space filled) at the Arbor Hills Landfill in 2020 was significantly lower than in previous years.

 
2020 Landfill LIfe - Volume Used.PNG
 

 Estimated Life Reported to EGLE

The curiously low “capacity used” in 2020 actually resulted in the expected life of Arbor Hills increasing.

 
2020 Landfill LIfe.PNG
 

Estimated Life Calculation

One year of unusually low capacity usage can skew the landfill life calculation.

 
Equation.PNG
 

 A Better Estimate

A more accurate estimate of the life of the Arbor Hills Landfill uses the trend of capacity utilized historically. This graph shows the landfill’s remaining capacity as reported by the landfill each year. A linear trend line estimates the landfill will reach capacity around the year 2027.

 
2020 Landfill LIfe - Dave's Estimate.PNG